Fitch Ratings projected Brent crude oil to trade between US$100 and US$110 per barrel [1] during June and July [1].
This forecast follows a revision of the global oil and gas sector outlook for 2026, which moved from neutral to positive [1]. The shift reflects growing volatility in the Middle East and the potential for significant supply disruptions that could impact global energy markets.
The agency said the possibility of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a primary driver for the price surge [1]. Because the strait is a critical chokepoint for oil shipments, any closure resulting from escalating conflict in the Middle East would tighten global supply and push prices higher [1].
Fitch Ratings did not provide a specific date for such a closure but linked the projection to the current regional instability [1]. The agency said the risk of disruption is high enough to justify the positive outlook for the sector's profitability, even as it poses risks to global economic stability.
Market analysts have monitored the region closely as geopolitical tensions fluctuate. The projected price range of US$100 to US$110 [1] represents a significant increase over recent averages, signaling a period of potential instability for oil-importing nations.
In related financial data, the exchange rate was noted at R$5.19 per US$1 [1].
“Brent crude oil to trade between US$100 and US$110 per barrel”
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt a vital artery of the global energy supply, likely triggering a rapid spike in energy costs worldwide. While a positive outlook for the oil and gas sector suggests higher profits for producers, it simultaneously threatens to increase inflation and slow economic growth for consuming nations.
