Recent opinion polls show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a hypothetical second-round presidential vote [1], [2].
These figures are critical as Brazil prepares for the October 2026 presidential election. The results suggest a deeply polarized electorate where a small shift in voter intention could determine the next administration.
A Quaest poll released on May 13 placed Lula at 42% of voter intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% [1], [3]. Other reports of the same Quaest survey indicated a different scenario, showing Lula with 44% in a matchup involving other candidates [4].
A separate survey conducted by BTG/Nexus and released on May 25 showed a wider gap between the two candidates [2], [5]. In that poll, Lula held 47% of voter intentions while Flávio Bolsonaro held 43% [2], [5].
The variation between the two major polling firms, Quaest and BTG/Nexus, highlights the volatility of current voter sentiment. While Lula maintains a lead in both datasets, the margin in the Quaest survey is nearly negligible, falling within a typical margin of error.
Flávio Bolsonaro continues to represent the ideological legacy of his father, while Lula seeks to maintain the PT's hold on the presidency. The polls reflect a nationwide snapshot of preferences taken during May 2026 to gauge the viability of these candidates ahead of the general election.
“Lula held 47% of voter intentions while Flávio Bolsonaro held 43%”
The data indicates that while Lula retains a statistical advantage, the race remains highly competitive. The narrow gap in the Quaest poll suggests that a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided or persuadable, meaning the final outcome will likely depend on the candidates' ability to capture the center-ground or mobilize their respective bases in the months leading up to October.
