A nationwide opinion poll by Invamer shows candidate Iván Cepeda leading the voting intentions for the upcoming Colombian presidential election [1].
These results provide a critical snapshot of voter sentiment as the country prepares for the presidential election scheduled for May 31, 2026 [2]. With the vote only weeks away, the data highlights a polarized electorate and a significant shift in the standing of the current administration.
Invamer conducted the survey for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio, releasing the findings on April 26, 2026 [3]. The data indicates that Iván Cepeda currently leads the first-round voting intentions. While reports on the exact figure vary, sources place his lead between 45% [4] and 51.2% [5].
Beyond candidate preferences, the poll tracked the public perception of the current presidency. Disapproval of President Gustavo Petro has risen to 58% [6]. This increase in negative sentiment coincides with the final stretch of the campaign cycle.
Other candidates are attempting to capitalize on their own momentum despite the lead held by Cepeda. Paloma Valencia said, "Somos la campaña que más crece" [7].
Despite the growth reported by some campaigns, the Invamer data suggests a challenging path for several candidates to secure an absolute majority in the first round. The poll serves as a benchmark for parties and media outlets as they refine their strategies for the May 31 vote [8].
“Iván Cepeda leads the first-round voting intentions with support between 45% and 51.2%.”
The combined data of a leading opposition-leaning candidate and a rising disapproval rating for President Petro suggests a potential shift in Colombia's political direction. If Cepeda maintains a lead near 50%, he may avoid a second-round runoff, provided the final voter turnout aligns with these projections.
