Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) reaffirmed his support for incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) on March 5, 2024.
The disagreement between Thune and President Donald Trump highlights a rift within the GOP regarding the direction of the Texas Republican Senate runoff. While Trump seeks to install a close ally, Thune is prioritizing the stability of the existing Senate leadership.
Thune said Cornyn remains a “principled conservative who has served Texas well” [1]. He said that the endorsement from the former president does not change his assessment of the incumbent’s record [1].
Trump took a different position, endorsing challenger Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General. Trump said Paxton is a “great guy, a great leader, and I fully support him” [2]. Trump said Paxton is a strong ally in the state [2].
The internal party conflict comes as Republicans hold 50 seats in the U.S. Senate heading into the November election [3]. The outcome of the Texas race is critical to maintaining that majority.
Market reactions to the endorsement were immediate. Prediction market odds for the GOP winning the Texas Senate seat fell from 55% to 30% after Trump backed Paxton [4]. However, some political analysts said that while the endorsement could shift the dynamics of the runoff, the GOP still believes Cornyn can hold the seat [5].
Thune's public stance serves as a buffer for Cornyn against the influence of the former president's base. The tension underscores a recurring theme in recent Republican primaries—the struggle between established party incumbents and candidates backed by Trump.
“"John Cornyn is a principled conservative who has served Texas well."”
This clash illustrates the ongoing tension between the institutional wing of the Republican Party and the populist movement led by Donald Trump. By backing Cornyn, Thune is signaling a preference for legislative experience and traditional conservatism over the loyalty-based endorsements favored by Trump. The volatility in prediction markets suggests that a divided GOP primary could potentially weaken the party's hold on the seat in the general election.
