The Iranian government fears a U.S. military strike could reignite domestic protests and threaten the stability of its rule [1].
This tension comes as both nations exchange accusations over the control of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of a U.S. naval blockade [2, 4]. The escalation risks disrupting global energy markets and increasing the likelihood of direct military confrontation in a critical maritime corridor.
Diplomatic clashes have recently intensified at the United Nations in New York [2]. Officials from Washington and Tehran have clashed over the U.S. naval blockade, and Iran's evolving role in nuclear non-proliferation discussions [2, 3]. These disagreements have heightened mutual suspicion between the two governments.
Economic concerns are mounting as the maritime standoff continues. There are fears of a potential oil price shock that could see prices reach $140 per barrel [3]. Iran has mocked the U.S. blockade, though the threat to shipping lanes remains a primary point of contention [3, 4].
Internal stability remains a critical concern for the Iranian leadership. The government believes that external military pressure could serve as a catalyst for public unrest [1]. This fear follows a period of volatility, illustrated by street scenes in Tehran recorded as recently as Jan. 31, 2026 [1].
While both sides have engaged in aggressive rhetoric, no formal high-alert declaration has been confirmed by both governments [1, 2]. The situation remains fluid as the U.S. maintains its naval presence and Iran continues to challenge the legality of the blockade in international forums [2, 4].
“Iran fears a U.S. military strike could reignite domestic protests and threaten the stability of its rule.”
The intersection of maritime disputes in the Strait of Hormuz and internal Iranian political fragility creates a volatile security environment. By linking the threat of a U.S. strike to the potential for domestic uprisings, Tehran is signaling that external military action could lead to internal collapse, while the $140 oil price projection suggests that the economic stakes extend far beyond the immediate region.
