President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a new poll regarding the 2026 presidential election [1].
The data highlights a deeply polarized electorate as Brazil approaches its next national election. The narrow gap between the two leading candidates suggests that a second-round runoff could be decided by a small margin of voters.
According to the BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday, April 25, 2026, Lula holds 47% of voter intentions compared to 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second-round scenario [1]. Other reporting on the same poll indicated a tighter race, with Lula at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% [3]. While some analysts describe the result as a lead for the president, other reports characterize the gap as a technical tie [2].
In a first-round scenario, the poll found Lula with 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 36% [4]. These figures suggest that while Lula maintains a consistent edge, he lacks a majority of the electorate's support to avoid a runoff.
Rejection rates provide further insight into the candidates' viability. Flávio Bolsonaro has a rejection rate of 52.6%, while Lula's rejection rate stands at 47.4% [2]. This indicates that more than half of the polled population would not vote for the senator, creating a potential ceiling for his growth in the polls.
The poll was conducted nationwide to gauge public support for the two leading candidates ahead of the 2026 cycle. The disparity in reporting regarding whether the candidates are in a technical tie or a clear lead reflects the narrow margin of error typical in such high-stakes political polling [1], [2].
“Lula holds 47% of voter intentions compared to 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro”
The polling data underscores a persistent political divide in Brazil, where the two primary candidates are locked in a statistical struggle. The high rejection rate for Flávio Bolsonaro may limit his ability to capture the centrist voters necessary to overtake Lula, but the proximity of the numbers suggests that neither candidate has established a dominant mandate.
