Andy Burnham (Labour) may see an increased chance of winning the Makerfield by-election due to a split in right-wing voting [1].
This development is significant because a victory in the seat could position the Mayor of Manchester to eventually challenge for the role of British prime minister [1].
The by-election took place on June 15, 2024 [1], in the Makerfield constituency of Ashton-in-Makerfield, England [1]. The political landscape in the region has been complicated by the entry of Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party into the contest [1].
Political analysts said that Restore Britain is expected to draw votes away from Reform UK [1]. This division of the right-wing electorate weakens the overall challenge to the Labour candidate, effectively lowering the threshold for a Burnham victory [1].
Burnham's campaign has focused on leveraging his profile as the Mayor of Manchester to secure the seat [1]. If successful, the win would provide him with a parliamentary platform, which is a traditional stepping stone for those seeking the premiership [1].
Opponents of this trajectory said that such a victory would be undeserved if it results primarily from a fractured opposition rather than a broad mandate [2]. Despite these critiques, the strategic advantage provided by a divided right remains a central factor in the race [1].
The outcome in Makerfield serves as a bellwether for how third-party insurgencies on the right may impact Labour's ability to secure key seats across England [1].
“The entry of Restore Britain into the race could weaken Reform UK.”
The potential success of Andy Burnham in Makerfield illustrates a broader trend in British politics where the emergence of multiple right-wing parties creates a 'spoiler effect.' By splitting the conservative-leaning vote, parties like Restore Britain may inadvertently facilitate Labour victories in competitive constituencies, potentially altering the leadership trajectory of high-profile politicians like Burnham.
