Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed to between two million [2] and 2.2 million barrels per day [1].
The plunge threatens global energy stability and forces Gulf state oil exporters to seek diplomatic resolutions to reopen the waterway.
Shipments have fallen from pre-war levels of approximately 20 million barrels per day [1]. The decline follows the start of the Iran-U.S. war in February 2026, which has turned the waterway between Iran and the United Arab Emirates into a conflict zone.
"The drop to 2.2 million barrels per day is unprecedented and underscores how the conflict has choked a vital oil artery," Maria Lopez of Reuters said.
Iranian forces have launched at least 172 attacks on Gulf infrastructure since February [1]. About 86 of those strikes targeted energy facilities [1]. These attacks have prompted Gulf states to consider deals with Iran to restore the flow of crude.
Rajiv Menon of CNBC said flows are currently at roughly two million barrels per day [3]. This represents a fraction of the former volume, leaving Asian importers struggling to offset the losses despite surges in U.S. crude imports [1].
Dr. Aisha Al-Mansoori of The Conversation said the strait remains largely shut [4]. The persistent closure has left oil exporters with few alternatives to move their product to international markets.
Gulf nations are now weighing the risks of continued hostilities against the economic necessity of reopening the strait. The current volume of trade is the lowest recorded since the conflict began earlier this year.
“The drop to 2.2 million barrels per day is unprecedented”
The collapse of Hormuz exports represents a systemic failure of one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Because U.S. production cannot fully compensate for the loss of millions of barrels of Gulf crude, the prolonged closure creates a structural deficit in the global oil market. This shift increases the geopolitical leverage of Iran and forces traditional U.S. allies in the Gulf to negotiate directly with Tehran to avoid total economic isolation.
