The India Meteorological Department has reduced its southwest monsoon rainfall forecast to approximately 90% of the long-period average [1].
This adjustment signals a potential agricultural crisis, as India relies heavily on seasonal rains to sustain its crop production and food security. A deficit in rainfall during the June-September window can lead to higher food prices and reduced yields for critical staples.
Meteorologists said the reduction is driven by a developing El Niño, which is weakening the southwest monsoon. This climatic pattern increases the risk of below-normal rainfall and elevates the likelihood of heat waves across the region [4].
Certain regions are already experiencing significant shortfalls. Maharashtra is currently facing a rainfall deficit of 41% [2]. Gujarat is also expected to face severe rainfall shortages as the monsoon stalls [3].
The impact of the weak monsoon is widespread, placing 12 states and 326 districts under alert [5]. Officials said the combination of low precipitation and high temperatures puts both rural livelihoods and national food prices at risk [5].
The IMD released the updated forecast earlier this month to warn of these growing risks [2]. While the overall average is projected at 90% [1], the localized deficits in western states suggest a more volatile season for the agricultural sector.
“The India Meteorological Department has reduced its southwest monsoon rainfall forecast to approximately 90% of the long-period average.”
A rainfall forecast below the long-period average, coupled with an active El Niño, typically correlates with decreased agricultural output in India. Because the deficit is concentrated in key states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, the government may face increased pressure to manage food inflation and provide relief to farmers facing crop failure.
