President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads voting intentions for the first round of the 2026 presidential election [1].

These figures indicate the current standing of Brazil's primary contenders as the country moves toward the October vote. The polling reflects a polarized electorate and highlights the gap between national trends and regional preferences.

According to a Genial/Quaest poll published May 13, 2026, Lula holds 39% of voting intentions for the first round [1]. In the same survey, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) follows with 29% [1]. Other data from EM.com confirms Lula's 39% lead in the first round, while candidate Romeu Zema holds four percent [5].

Predictions for a potential second-round runoff show varying results. Analysis from Jovem Pan indicates Lula leads with 43% against Bolsonaro's 38% [3, 4]. However, other data from the Genial/Quaest survey suggests the two candidates are tied in a second-round scenario [2].

Regional data presents a different picture. A poll restricted to the state of Rio Grande do Sul showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading with 42.2% of intentions, while Lula trailed with 28.2% [7, 8].

"Lula lidera com 39% das intenções de voto no primeiro turno, enquanto Flávio Bolsonaro tem 29%," the Genial/Quaest institute said [1].

Despite the national lead, the volatility in second-round projections and regional disparities suggest a competitive race. The divergence between national polls and state-specific data underscores the importance of regional campaigning in the coming months.

“Lula leads with 39% of voting intentions for the first round.”

The data suggests that while President Lula maintains a consistent national lead, his support is not uniform across all Brazilian states. The contradiction between national polling and the Rio Grande do Sul results indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro retains strong regional pockets of support. Furthermore, the discrepancy between a five-point lead and a tie in second-round projections suggests that the final outcome remains highly sensitive to voter shifts as the election approaches.