Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads national intention-to-vote polls for both the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential election.
These results indicate a continuing political divide in Brazil as the country prepares for a high-stakes contest between the current administration and the Bolsonaro camp. The data suggests that while the president maintains a lead, the margin varies significantly depending on the polling firm.
Surveys released between May 6 and May 27 show Lula ahead of his primary rival, Flávio Bolsonaro. According to a Genial/Quaest poll, Lula holds 39% of the vote compared to 29% for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round [1]. In a projected second-round matchup from the same firm, Lula leads with 43% against 38% [1].
Other data provides a slightly different picture of the race. A BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula leading in a potential second round with 47% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 43% [4]. However, a PoderData/Aya survey indicates a closer race, suggesting Lula is tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in a second-round scenario [5].
Regional data also shows strong support for the incumbent in specific areas. In the state of Paraíba, a Real Time Big Data poll found that 53% of respondents would vote for Lula [3].
Additional surveys from the Instituto Meio/Ideia also place Lula in the lead for the first round, though specific percentages were not provided in the summary [6]. The varying results across the different pollsters, including Genial/Quaest, PoderData/Aya, and BTG/Nexus, highlight the volatility of voter sentiment as the election cycle progresses.
“Lula leads national intention-to-vote polls for both the first and second rounds.”
The polling data reflects a polarized electorate where the incumbent maintains a consistent, though narrow, advantage over the Bolsonaro family's candidacy. The discrepancy between a 'tie' in some polls and a lead in others suggests that the 2026 election remains competitive, with the final outcome likely depending on the ability of either candidate to capture undecided voters in a second-round runoff.
