Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) by roughly four to five points in a hypothetical second-round vote [1], [2].
This shift in voter sentiment follows the release of audio recordings linking Flávio Bolsonaro with businessman Daniel Vorcaro. The poll suggests these recordings have impacted the candidate's standing as Brazil prepares for its 2026 elections.
According to the Datafolha poll released Friday, Lula holds between 47% [1] and 48% [4] support in a second-round scenario. Flávio Bolsonaro holds 43% [1], [4]. This puts Lula ahead by a margin of approximately four points [3].
The recordings involving Vorcaro have introduced new volatility into the race. While Flávio Bolsonaro remains a primary contender for the PL, the data indicates a widening gap between him and the PT candidate.
Other metrics from the poll highlight varying levels of support depending on the election stage. In a hypothetical first-round scenario, Lula's support is at 40% while Flávio Bolsonaro's is at 31% [5].
The timing of the poll release coincides with the height of the "Dark Horse" case discussions in Brazil. The impact of these recordings on the final election outcome remains to be seen as the campaign progresses.
“Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly four to five points in a hypothetical second-round vote”
The Datafolha results suggest that scandals involving personal associations can shift the momentum in Brazil's highly polarized political climate. By gaining a lead of four to five points, Lula is capitalizing on the negative perception surrounding the Vorcaro audio recordings, potentially consolidating a lead that could be difficult for the PL to overcome if further damaging information surfaces.
