A new poll suggests the One Nation party could win between 46 and 59 seats in the next Australian federal election [1].
This projected surge represents a fundamental shift in the country's political alignment. If these numbers materialize, it would signal a massive migration of voters away from traditional center-right parties toward a more populist alternative.
The data comes from a survey of 6,000 voters conducted by Redbridge Group and Accent Research [1]. Currently, One Nation holds two seats in the lower house [1]. The poll indicates a dramatic increase in support that could leave the Coalition with only seven to 21 seats [1].
Meanwhile, the Labor party is projected to maintain a stronger position than the Coalition, with an estimated 70 to 82 seats [1]. The disparity suggests a fragmentation of the center-right vote, where voters previously aligned with the Coalition may now be shifting their preferences toward Pauline Hanson's party [2].
This redistribution of power would likely end the traditional two-party dominance in the House of Representatives. Such a result would force any winning government to negotiate with a significantly larger crossbench to pass legislation, a scenario that could lead to legislative instability or a total realignment of conservative policy in Australia [1].
Analysts said the trend is linked to a broader fragmentation of the center-right vote [2]. The potential for One Nation to move from a fringe presence to a major parliamentary force would change how federal budgets and social policies are debated and decided.
“One Nation could win between 46 and 59 seats in the next Australian federal election.”
The polling suggests a potential collapse of the Coalition's traditional base. If One Nation captures a significant portion of the lower house, the Australian political system would move from a stable two-party preference model to a fragmented landscape where populist influence is institutionalized, making the formation of a majority government significantly more difficult.
