The Indian rupee may slide toward 97 per U.S. dollar if current economic pressures persist, according to a recent analysis [1].
This projection highlights the vulnerability of India's currency and commodity imports to geopolitical volatility and shifting global market trends. Because India relies heavily on energy imports, a weakening currency combined with rising oil costs could strain the national economy.
Amit Goel, co-founder and chief global strategist at PACE 360, discussed these trends during an April 16, 2026, appearance on CNBC TV18 [1]. Goel said the rupee could weaken to around 97 [1] per U.S. dollar.
Energy markets are also facing significant pressure. Goel said Brent crude could climb to about $115 [1] a barrel as supply concerns continue to linger. These rising costs for crude oil typically put downward pressure on the rupee, creating a compounding effect for the Indian economy.
Despite the volatility in currency and oil, Goel forecast a potential rally for precious metals. He said gold may be headed for $5,000 [1] and silver for $100 [1] per ounce once risks in West Asia cool off.
This outlook suggests that while immediate geopolitical tensions may keep prices volatile, the long-term trajectory for gold and silver remains bullish. The shift would depend on the easing of regional risks, a move that could trigger a massive influx of investment into safe-haven assets.
Goel said that the interplay between bond yields and currency depreciation will be critical in determining the timing of these moves. The current environment remains sensitive to supply-side shocks in the oil market and the overall stability of the West Asia region [1, 2].
“The rupee could slide towards the 97 per‑dollar mark if current pressures persist.”
The convergence of a weakening rupee and spiking oil prices creates a 'double whammy' for India's trade deficit. However, the aggressive price targets for gold and silver indicate that investors are positioning for a significant hedge against currency devaluation and geopolitical instability, suggesting that the perceived value of hard assets is expected to rise sharply as regional tensions stabilize.
