South Korea is preparing for local elections on June 3, 2024 [1], following a period of presidential impeachment and a subsequent national election.

The timing and political atmosphere are significant because they mirror a historical pattern of volatility and shift in power. Analysts said the current landscape closely resembles the dynamics seen during the 2018 local elections, which followed the 2016 impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye.

In a series titled "Local Election Equation," YTN anchor Lee Jung-mi examined the variables influencing the upcoming vote. The report highlights the 2018 elections as a primary point of comparison, noting that the progressive ruling party at the time achieved a historic 14:2 victory [1]. This result occurred eight years prior to the 2024 cycle [1].

Reflecting on that period, former Liberty Korea Party leader Hong Joon-pyo said, "We were defeated and the country was taken over entirely." He said that the 2018 victory for the progressives happened in the early stages of the Moon Jae-in administration [1]. Conversely, former Democratic Party leader Choo Mi-ae characterized that specific win by saying, "Today's victory will be a victory for the people" [1].

The report draws a line back to November 2016 [1], when Park Geun-hye apologized to the public during the impeachment process. Park said, "Once again, I bow my head deeply in apology to the people" [1].

Political observers are monitoring whether the current administration will face a similar electoral rout. The analysis includes references to a projected statement by Yoon Suk Yeol dated December 2024 [1], suggesting that the trajectory of the current presidency may follow the precedents set by previous administrations during times of national crisis. The parallel suggests that the electorate may use local elections to signal their approval or disapproval of the new national leadership following a period of systemic upheaval.

“The 2018 local elections resulted in a 14:2 victory for the progressive ruling party.”

The comparison to 2018 suggests that South Korean local elections often serve as a referendum on the national government's stability and legitimacy, particularly after a presidential transition triggered by impeachment. If the 'parallel theory' holds, the results of the June 3 elections could indicate a significant shift in regional power and a mandate, or a lack thereof, for the current administration's policy direction.