South Korea's Meteorological Administration (KMA) expects unusually high temperatures and above-average monsoon rainfall starting in June 2024 [1].
These forecasts suggest a significant risk of extreme weather patterns that could impact agriculture, energy consumption, and public safety across the peninsula. The combination of intense heat and heavy precipitation often increases the risk of flash flooding and heat-related illnesses.
Jo Ik-hyun, head of the Climate Prediction Division at the KMA, said sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain high due to high heat capacity and stronger-than-normal turbulence [1]. This atmospheric condition is contributing to the projection that summer temperatures will be higher than average [1].
Specifically, the KMA projects that temperatures in June 2024 will be two to three degrees Celsius higher than the climatological average [1]. The agency noted that the southern regions of the country are particularly susceptible to these trends.
The increase in temperature and rainfall potential is driven by elevated sea-surface temperatures in the North Indian Ocean and North Pacific [1]. These warm waters increase the flow of warm air and turbulence into the region, factors that directly enhance the potential for heavier monsoon rains during the June-August period [1].
"Due to high heat capacity and the influence of turbulence stronger than usual, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain high," Jo said [1]. "Temperatures this summer will be higher than average," Jo said [1].
“Temperatures in June 2024 will be 2-3°C higher than the climatological average.”
The KMA's forecast indicates a compounding weather event where extreme heat and heavy rainfall occur simultaneously. This pattern is linked to broader oceanic warming in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans, suggesting that regional climate anomalies are intensifying the traditional East Asian monsoon cycle.
