Climate scientists warn that a potentially strong "super" El Niño could develop this year, bringing extreme heat, floods, and droughts [1].
This development is critical because it threatens global food security and infrastructure. The phenomenon disrupts weather patterns worldwide, potentially amplifying the effects of existing global warming and creating hazardous conditions for millions of people.
Meteorological agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Brazil's Cemaden, are monitoring the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Data suggests the event may develop between May and July 2026 [2]. Some projections indicate this could be the worst El Niño in 140 years [3].
In Brazil, the impact is expected to be severe. Cemaden said there is a "desastre térmico" — or thermal disaster — specifically targeting the Southeast and Center-West regions [4]. These areas may face extreme temperature spikes and unpredictable precipitation patterns.
Global temperature records are also at risk. Scientists said that new heat records could be set extending through 2027 [3]. The WMO said that the Earth's climate is more unbalanced than at any other time in recorded history [5].
Despite the severity of the forecasts, some experts advise against panic. Climate scientists said it is "não é motivo para entrar em pânico" [6]. They emphasize that while the risks are high, early warnings allow governments to implement mitigation strategies.
Climate models indicate that a more unstable global climate, driven by general warming, is increasing the likelihood of such strong El Niño events [1, 7]. The interplay between ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure continues to create a volatile environment for the coming months.
“This could be the worst El Niño in 140 years.”
The potential for a super El Niño in 2026 signals a dangerous synergy between natural climate cycles and human-induced global warming. By layering a strong El Niño atop already rising baseline temperatures, the planet faces a higher probability of 'compound extremes' where heatwaves and droughts occur simultaneously. This increases the pressure on agricultural yields and public health systems, particularly in the Global South.
