President Donald Trump (R-US) said he intends to "take" Cuba using a combination of economic coercion and potential military action.

This escalation marks a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy toward the Caribbean island. By threatening the regime's stability, the administration seeks to force a surrender or the acceptance of strict U.S. terms under an "America First" agenda.

Trump has specifically utilized a punitive oil embargo to pressure the island nation. On Monday, the president said, "I can do anything I want with Cuba" [1]. This rhetoric suggests a willingness to bypass traditional diplomacy in favor of aggressive leverage.

Reports indicate the administration is weighing two primary paths. One involves a negotiated deal where Cuba would receive sanctions relief and economic aid in exchange for compliance [2]. The alternative is a more aggressive military approach. Richard Feinberg, a former National Security Council director for Latin America, said the first step in such a scenario would be a "Venezuela‑style operation to seize Mr Castro" [2].

These strategies have led to divergent views on the ground. Some analysts said the escalating U.S. pressure is pushing Cuba into a humanitarian and economic catastrophe, suggesting the instability may be by design [3]. Others said the pressure is a strategic necessity to force the regime to capitulate [2].

Throughout the first half of 2026 [1], the administration has fluctuated between the promise of aid and the threat of force. While the president has publicly highlighted the "honor of taking Cuba," it remains unclear if a negotiated settlement is the ultimate goal or if the administration prefers a total regime collapse [1, 2].

“"I can do anything I want with Cuba."”

The administration's approach represents a transition from containment to active regime change. By pairing an oil embargo with the threat of military intervention, the U.S. is testing the resilience of the Cuban government. The uncertainty between a negotiated deal and a forced takeover creates a high-risk environment that could either lead to a geopolitical realignment in the Caribbean or a severe humanitarian crisis.