President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a new voter intention poll for a hypothetical second-round matchup [1].
This shift in polling data suggests a potential decline in the competitiveness of the Bolsonaro campaign as the 2024 presidential election approaches. The results indicate a widening gap between the current administration and the opposition's leading figure.
According to the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, Lula holds 48.9% of voter support [1]. In comparison, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 41.8% [1]. This represents a six percentage point drop for Bolsonaro since April [1].
The poll carries a margin of error of one point [4]. While the exact release date of the data varies across reports—with sources citing either May 19 or May 28, 2024 [5, 6]—the trend shows a clear downward trajectory for the senator's support.
Flávio Bolsonaro has faced a challenging period in maintaining his previous levels of popularity. The six-point decline [1] suggests that the coalition supporting the senator may be struggling to consolidate the electorate, or expand its reach beyond its core base.
Lula's position at nearly 49% [1] places him close to a majority in a two-candidate scenario. This positioning reflects the current state of Brazilian political sentiment as the country navigates the lead-up to the national vote.
“Lula holds 48.9% of voter support”
The polling data indicates a loss of momentum for Flávio Bolsonaro, who is attempting to maintain the political legacy of his father. A six-point drop in a short window suggests that the opposition may be failing to capture the undecided middle of the Brazilian electorate, while President Lula maintains a stable, plurality lead that could be decisive in a runoff election.
