Colombian voters will head to the polls for a presidential election on May 31, 2024 [1].

The election arrives amid a volatile security climate where rebel-linked violence is influencing voter priorities. The outcome will likely determine whether the country pursues a path of continued conflict or a new peace framework.

Security concerns are concentrated in the southwestern region of the country and the capital, Bogotá [2]. Reports indicate that more than two dozen attacks have occurred in southwestern Colombia since Friday [3]. Other reports describe the scale of the violence as dozens of attacks [4], highlighting a surge in insecurity that has unsettled the electorate.

Voters are primarily driven by concerns over this escalation of rebel-linked violence and general instability [5]. The political landscape is currently defined by a tension between candidates offering different approaches to war and peace [6].

While the right wing is divided among competing conservative candidates [7], some reports specify that there are two primary right-wing candidates vying for the presidency [8]. These candidates must navigate a public increasingly worried about the state's ability to maintain order in rural corridors.

The surge in attacks is seen as a direct challenge to the security apparatus during a critical democratic transition. With the election date of May 31, 2024, approaching [1], the focus remains on whether the candidates can provide a viable strategy to curb the rebel insurgency and ensure voter safety at polling stations.

“Voter concerns are driven by a surge in rebel‑linked violence and insecurity”

The timing of the surge in rebel violence suggests an attempt to destabilize the electoral process or pressure the incoming administration. By targeting the southwestern region and the capital, these groups are signaling that neither the urban center nor the rural periphery is immune to insecurity. The division among conservative candidates may further complicate the response to these threats, as the electorate seeks a decisive security mandate.