Ethiopia held parliamentary and regional elections on Monday, June 1, 2024, with the ruling Prosperity Party expected to secure a landslide victory [1].

The results could consolidate the power of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during a period of significant national instability. While the elections aim to provide a mandate for the government, widespread unrest and the exclusion of certain regions challenge the perceived legitimacy of the process [1, 2].

More than 50 million people were registered to vote in the cycle [3]. However, the electoral process was not nationwide. Voting did not take place in the Tigray region due to what officials said were unfavourable conditions [1, 2].

Reports of significant unrest surfaced across the country as citizens headed to the polls. These disruptions highlight the fragile security environment that continues to persist in various districts, a factor that observers said could complicate the transition of power or the implementation of new policies [1, 2].

The Prosperity Party remains the dominant force in the race. Analysts said the party is expected to maintain a decisive lead, which would allow Abiy Ahmed to continue his current legislative agenda with a strengthened parliamentary majority [1, 2].

Despite the expected win, the absence of Tigray and the reported volatility in other areas suggest that the election may not resolve the underlying ethnic and political tensions within the state [1].

“Voting did not take place in the Tigray region due to 'unfavourable conditions'”

The exclusion of the Tigray region and the presence of widespread unrest indicate that while the Prosperity Party may achieve a numerical landslide, it may struggle to achieve national reconciliation. A victory based on a fragmented electorate could leave the government vulnerable to continued insurgency and challenges to its authority in the periphery.