Middle East oil exports are expected to return to normal levels by the end of July [1] following a recent U.S.–Iran cease-fire agreement.
The projection suggests a stabilization of global energy supplies after a period of volatility. While the diplomatic deal reduces immediate geopolitical risks, the market continues to grapple with structural supply constraints that maintain upward pressure on pricing.
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the outlook during appearances on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ and ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ programs [2, 3]. The analysis follows the implementation of the latest cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and Iran in May 2026 [3].
Struyven said that while the flow of oil is returning to previous levels, the broader price environment will not drop immediately. He said that Brent crude prices will stay elevated through the fourth quarter of 2026 [3]. This sustained pricing is attributed to a lingering loss of supply that the cease-fire alone cannot instantly rectify.
The normalization of exports by the end of July [1] marks a critical turning point for regional stability. However, the forecast for high prices through the end of the year suggests that the global market remains tight, meaning that any further disruptions could either exacerbate current prices or prolong the recovery period.
Goldman Sachs research indicates that the interplay between diplomatic breakthroughs and physical supply availability is the primary driver of current market trends. The firm's outlook emphasizes that the removal of a geopolitical risk premium does not necessarily equate to a surplus of oil in the global system [3].
“Middle East oil exports are expected to return to normal levels by the end of July”
The disconnect between normalizing export volumes and sustained high prices indicates that the market is shifting from a 'fear-based' premium to a 'scarcity-based' premium. Even with the U.S.–Iran cease-fire reducing the threat of sudden outages, the underlying lack of spare capacity or production deficits ensures that Brent crude remains expensive for the remainder of the year.
