The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that the 2026 southwest monsoon is progressing more slowly than last year, causing widespread rainfall deficits [1].

This slowdown threatens agricultural productivity across the region, as millions of farmers rely on consistent monsoon rains for crop irrigation and water security.

Data from the IMD indicates a significant lack of precipitation, with June 2026 ranking among the driest on record for India [3]. The deficit is most pronounced in central India, as well as the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka [2].

Regarding the scale of the shortage, reports vary. The IMD said on June 19 that the country is facing a 41% rainfall deficit [1]. Other estimates from the IMD suggest total monsoon rainfall may reach 90% to 92% of the long-term average [2].

Meteorologists attribute the weakened circulation to a lingering El Niño pattern [1]. This atmospheric condition has been compounded by a weak Somali jet and reduced cloud cover, which together hinder the movement of moisture-laden winds into the subcontinent [2].

"The country is facing a 41% rainfall deficit, the lowest in recent years," the IMD said [1].

The slow progression of the rains has left several regions struggling to meet basic water needs as the season continues.

“June 2026 among the driest on record for India”

The discrepancy between the 41% deficit and the 8% to 10% long-term average estimate suggests a volatile start to the season rather than a uniform failure. However, the link to El Niño and the weak Somali jet indicates a systemic disruption in atmospheric circulation that could lead to prolonged drought conditions if the pattern does not shift.