Jonathan Gilliam, a former Navy SEAL and FBI special agent, said hard-line factions in Iran continue to conduct intimidation attacks in the Strait of Hormuz [1].
These actions suggest a strategic effort to provoke the U.S. into returning to the region. The persistence of these threats indicates that internal Iranian factions are actively working against peace efforts to maintain a specific geopolitical posture [1].
Gilliam said that the removal of specific leaders does not necessarily eliminate the threat. He said that even after the deaths of many hard-line extremists who previously ran the country, certain factions remain embedded within the intelligence apparatus [1].
According to Gilliam, these remaining elements are willing to carry out attacks to draw the U.S. back into the conflict [1]. This cycle of aggression in the Strait of Hormuz serves as a tool for these factions to influence both domestic and international policy [2].
"The problem with Iran and dealing with them is even when you’ve killed a lot of the hardline extremists that were running the country … there are still factions in place, I think through the intelligence apparatus, that are willing to continue these types of intimidation attacks or attacks to draw the United States back in," Gilliam said [1].
The focus on the Strait of Hormuz remains critical due to the volume of global shipping passing through the waterway. The continued targeting of ships highlights the volatility of the region, and the influence of non-unified power structures within the Iranian government [2].
“Iran’s hard-line factions continue intimidation attacks after Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The assessment suggests that Iran is not a monolith. If hard-line factions within the intelligence services operate independently of the central leadership's diplomatic goals, the U.S. may face a scenario where tactical aggression continues regardless of high-level negotiations, complicating efforts to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz.
