Elon Musk said that AI-controlled self-driving cars will account for about 90% [1] of all vehicle miles driven within the next 10 years [1].

This prediction signals a fundamental shift in global transportation, suggesting that manual driving will become a rarity as autonomous technology and robotaxi economics scale. The transition would reshape urban infrastructure, and the labor market for professional drivers.

Musk said the remarks via video during the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Israel [1]. He said that advances in autonomous-driving technology and the economic advantages of robotaxi services will make manual driving uncommon [1].

Beyond the decade-long outlook, Musk addressed more immediate timelines for the U.S. market. He said that fully self-driving vehicles operating without human safety monitors are expected to become more common across the United States later this year [2].

"In 10 years, probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by AI in a self‑driving car," Musk said [1].

The shift toward AI-led transit relies on the ability of vehicles to navigate complex environments without human intervention. While Tesla continues to expand its robotaxi ambitions, the rollout of vehicles without safety monitors remains a critical milestone for the company's valuation and regulatory standing [2].

Musk's vision suggests a future where car ownership may be replaced by on-demand autonomous fleets. This model aims to reduce traffic congestion, and lower the cost of transit for the general public [1].

“"In 10 years, probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by AI in a self‑driving car."”

Musk's timeline places immense pressure on both regulatory bodies and competitors to accelerate the adoption of Level 4 and Level 5 autonomy. If 90% of miles are driven by AI, the automotive industry would pivot from a hardware-sales model to a service-based software model, fundamentally changing how cities manage traffic and insurance liability.