The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country from June through August 2026 [1].
These conditions threaten the national agricultural sector and public health. Reduced precipitation combined with extreme heat increases the likelihood of crop failure and the spread of seasonal illnesses.
Weather officials identified the largest rainfall deficits in Northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa [2]. The PMD said rainfall was likely to remain near-normal to slightly below-normal across most other parts of the country [2].
The forecast is driven by global climatic shifts. A PMD spokesperson said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to shift to a positive phase by July 2026, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has moved into a positive phase and is expected to strengthen further during the season [1].
These atmospheric patterns directly impact the monsoon's intensity. The combination of a strengthening El Niño and a shifting IOD typically suppresses precipitation in the region, leading to the projected deficits.
The environmental stress extends beyond water scarcity. The PMD said the outlook raises concerns for agriculture, including moisture stress, accelerated pest and disease development in crops, and a higher risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue [3].
Local authorities are monitoring the situation as the region enters the peak summer months. The PMD continues to track the ENSO phase to refine its precipitation estimates for the remainder of the season [1].
“The outlook raises concerns for agriculture, including moisture stress, accelerated pest and disease development in crops”
The convergence of a positive ENSO phase and a shifting Indian Ocean Dipole creates a compounding effect that disrupts the traditional monsoon cycle. For a country heavily dependent on seasonal rains for its agrarian economy, this forecast suggests a period of heightened food insecurity and increased pressure on healthcare systems due to heat-related and vector-borne illnesses.
