Anna Colin Lebedev examined how more than 12 years [1] of war have transformed the societies of Russia and Ukraine and their bilateral relationship.
This analysis highlights the deep structural and psychological shifts occurring within both nations. As the conflict persists, the societal changes create long-term barriers to reconciliation and redefine national identities on both sides of the border.
Speaking at the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe in Washington, D.C., Lebedev delivered the 21st annual [3] Raymond Aron Lecture. The presentation focused on the cumulative impact of a decade-plus of conflict, with a specific emphasis on the period following Russia's full-scale invasion.
Lebedev said four years [2] have passed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This period of intensified warfare has accelerated the divergence between the two countries, altering how citizens perceive their governments and their neighbors.
The lecture detailed how the prolonged nature of the fighting has moved beyond military engagement to affect the very fabric of daily life. The transformation encompasses economic shifts, demographic changes, and the evolution of state control within Russia.
In Ukraine, the conflict has further solidified a national identity centered on resistance and sovereignty. The shared experience of the invasion has reshaped the social contract, and the expectations citizens have of their leadership.
Lebedev said the relationship between the two societies has been fundamentally altered by these events. The enduring nature of the war ensures that the social scars will remain long after any potential ceasefire.
“More than 12 years of war have transformed the societies of Russia and Ukraine.”
The shift from a localized conflict to a full-scale invasion has moved the war from a political dispute to a total societal transformation. By framing the conflict as a 12-year trajectory, the analysis suggests that the current instability is not a sudden rupture but the culmination of a long-term erosion of bilateral ties, making a return to pre-war social norms nearly impossible.
