Kassio Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), suspended the publication of an AtlasIntel opinion poll showing a drop in support for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
The decision is significant because it restricts the public dissemination of voter trend data during a critical campaign period, raising questions about the criteria used to invalidate political polling.
Nunes Marques issued the suspension on Monday, June 8 [1]. The ruling followed a request from the campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro, who is a candidate for the presidency. The TSE president said the suspension was based on "suspeitas de indução ao eleitor" [1], or suspicions of voter induction.
According to the court, the suspension was prompted by concerns that the survey questionnaire contained inductive questions [1], [3]. Additionally, the court noted the presence of unauthenticated audio that could have influenced the responses of those interviewed [1], [3].
The poll in question, referred to by some sources as the Atlas/Bloomberg survey [2], indicated a decline in voting intentions for Bolsonaro in a potential second-round scenario [2].
Instituto AtlasIntel disputed the court's findings. A representative for the institute said the questionnaire was completed before any exposure to the audio involving Vorcaro [4]. The institute said that the survey did not induce voters or manipulate the results [4].
Nunes Marques said he "suspendeu a divulgação da pesquisa Atlas/Bloomberg" [2] after dialogues with campaign representatives. While most reports date the decision to June 8 [1], [2], [3], one source cited the date as June 9 [5].
“suspeitas de indução ao eleitor”
This move by the TSE highlights the ongoing tension between judicial oversight of electoral integrity and the freedom of polling firms to publish data. By suspending a poll based on the methodology of the questions and the influence of external audio, the court is asserting a strict standard for what constitutes a 'fair' survey, which could lead to more frequent legal challenges against polls that produce unfavorable results for high-profile candidates.
