The United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization warned that an El Niño event is likely to develop between June and August [1].
This climate pattern threatens to amplify extreme weather events globally, as the phenomenon interacts with existing human-caused climate change to raise temperatures. The UN is urging all countries to strengthen early-warning systems to mitigate potential disasters.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80 percent chance [2] of the warming El Niño phenomenon developing between June and August. Further projections indicate a 90 percent probability [3] that the event will continue until at least November.
The phenomenon originates in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to cause significant shifts in global weather patterns. A UN spokesperson said the Pacific Ocean-warming phenomenon will bring above-average temperatures "nearly everywhere" and fuel more extreme weather [4].
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the severity of the current situation. "We are entering a new phase of El Niño that is an urgent climate warning," Guterres said [5].
Countries are being advised to prepare for the heightened risks associated with this timeframe [1]. The combined effect of natural variability and rising global temperatures creates a volatile environment for agriculture, water security, and infrastructure. The UN continues to advocate for a coordinated international response to protect vulnerable populations from the predicted temperature spikes.
“There is an 80-percent chance of the warming El Niño phenomenon developing between June and August.”
The convergence of a strong El Niño cycle with long-term anthropogenic warming suggests that 2026 could see record-breaking heat. Because El Niño alters atmospheric circulation, the resulting extreme weather is not limited to the Pacific region but can trigger droughts in some areas and catastrophic flooding in others, placing immense pressure on global food supply chains and emergency management systems.
