United Nations scientists and the World Meteorological Organization said a new phase of the El Niño weather pattern is very likely [1] to begin within the next few months.
This development matters because the current cycle is expected to be among the strongest on record. The intensification of this pattern, coupled with existing climate change, is forecast to drive extreme heat and severe weather events across the globe.
The UN confirmed the onset of the pattern on June 4, 2026 [3]. National weather agencies, including NOAA, are monitoring the Pacific Ocean region where the phenomenon originates. The resulting impacts are expected to stretch from North America to Europe, and Africa [1].
Scientists said climate change is amplifying the natural El Niño cycle. This interaction makes the pattern hotter and increases the likelihood of triggering severe weather events [2, 5]. The synergy between the natural cycle and human-induced warming may result in a "super El Niño" that is especially severe [2].
Regional forecasts indicate significant volatility. In Canada, 2026 is forecast to be among the hottest years on record [4]. Other regions may face increased risks of flooding and intense storms as the atmospheric pressure and ocean temperatures shift.
Global agencies are urging governments to prepare for these disruptions. The combination of record-breaking ocean temperatures and a warming atmosphere creates a high-risk environment for agriculture, infrastructure, and public health on multiple continents [1, 3].
“El Niño is 'very likely' to officially begin within the next few months”
The emergence of a high-intensity El Niño during a period of sustained global warming suggests a compounding effect. Rather than a standalone weather event, this cycle acts as a force multiplier for climate change, potentially pushing global temperatures toward new records and straining disaster response systems in both developed and developing nations.
