The United States' effort to force a rapid regime collapse in Iran has stalled after approximately 100 days of fighting [2].

This stalemate marks a significant shift in the conflict, as the U.S. strategy of air strikes and economic pressure failed to trigger an unconditional surrender. The persistence of Iranian hard-liners has transformed a planned short-term operation into a protracted military engagement.

President Donald Trump (R-FL) had initially expected the campaign to last four to five weeks [1]. He said, "At first, we expected about 4 to 5 weeks. However, we also have the ability to sustain this for much longer."

The U.S. approach mirrored previous efforts to induce regime change through overwhelming force and financial isolation. However, the expected collapse did not materialize, and Iranian leadership instead rallied around hard-line factions. This resilience has forced the U.S. to pivot its strategic goals toward the maritime security of the Gulf region.

Berk Ozelik of the Royal Joint Military Research Institute in the UK noted the impact of early Iranian counter-attacks. Ozelik said that when Iran struck U.S. bases across the Gulf so quickly at the start of the attack, local countries were shocked.

The conflict has now centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. Ali Baez of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project said that a war that began as a choice has now become an inevitable war. Baez said the necessity of reopening the strait is the primary objective.

U.S. forces continue to maintain a presence across Gulf bases, but the failure to achieve a quick victory has increased the geopolitical stakes. The transition from a regime-change objective to a maritime security operation reflects the difficulty of achieving political collapse through air power alone.

“"At first, we expected about 4 to 5 weeks."”

The failure of the 'rapid collapse' model suggests that economic pressure and air superiority are insufficient to dismantle the Iranian political structure. By shifting focus to the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is moving from a political objective—regime change—to a strategic objective—global trade security—acknowledging that the Iranian government remains viable despite intense military pressure.