カナダ大手6行の決算展望

BMO’s Q2 net income of C$2.7 billion, announced on June 1, eclipsed the consensus C$2.3 billion and lifted adjusted earnings per share 40 percent year‑over‑year, underscoring the bank’s fee‑driven earnings surge (BMO press release, 2026‑06‑01). The jump came as capital‑markets revenue rose 22 percent to C$1.1 billion, while the net interest margin (NIM) held steady at 2.05 percent, a modest improvement over the 2.02 percent reported in Q1. The steadier NIM reflects the Bank of Canada’s post‑2025 rate‑cut cycle finally translating into a deposit‑cost lag that has largely been absorbed, a trend echoed across the Big Six and highlighted in the latest OSFI banking‑sector outlook (OSFI, May 2026).

Scotiabank’s fiscal Q2 earnings of C$1.89 billion, released May 30, beat the C$1.78 billion consensus and delivered a 16 percent rise in pre‑tax‑provision earnings (Scotiabank earnings release, 2026‑05‑30). The bank’s NIM slipped to 1.94 percent from 1.97 percent a year earlier, but the decline was offset by a 12 percent surge in wealth‑management fees and a 9 percent increase in Canadian‑segment loan growth. The earnings beat was further reinforced by a 4 percent dividend hike to C$0.92 per share, the first increase since 2023, signaling confidence in credit‑quality trends despite a modest uptick in residential‑mortgage provisions to 0.31 percent of loan balances (Scotiabank MD&A, 2026‑05‑30).

National Bank of Canada posted a second‑quarter profit of C$1.23 billion, surpassing the C$1.15 billion consensus and driven by a 15 percent rise in capital‑markets revenue and a 6 percent expansion in wealth‑management assets (National Bank earnings release, 2026‑05‑28). The bank’s NIM held at 2.08 percent, marginally above the 2.05 percent recorded in Q1, while its provision for credit losses (PCL) fell to 0.24 percent of total loans, the lowest level since Q3 2023. The dividend was raised 5 percent to C$0.85 per share, reinforcing the pattern of dividend growth among the Big Six as a proxy for household‑balance‑sheet health.

Across the cohort, the common thread is a stabilization of NIM after two years of compression. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate, now at 4.75 percent after a series of cuts that concluded in late 2025, has left the yield curve flatter but has allowed deposit‑cost pass‑through to lag behind loan‑rate adjustments. As a result, the average NIM for the six banks sits at 2.02 percent in Q2, up from 1.97 percent in Q1, according to Bloomberg’s aggregate calculations (Bloomberg, 2026‑06‑02). The modest rebound is being driven largely by higher‑margin fee income rather than interest‑rate spreads, a shift that analysts see as a structural rebalancing of Canadian banks toward wealth and capital‑markets businesses.

Credit‑loss provisions remain the most closely watched metric for consumer‑credit health. TD’s Q2 PCL ratio, disclosed in its May 28 filing, rose to 0.38 percent of loan balances, reflecting a slight increase in mortgage‑renewal stress as the 2025‑26 renewal wall progresses (TD earnings release, 2026‑05‑28). By contrast, BMO’s PCL fell to 0.31 percent, and CIBC’s latest quarterly filing (May 31) showed a PCL of 0.34 percent, both below the sector median of 0.36 percent. The divergence suggests that banks with larger U.S. retail‑mortgage footprints—TD and CIBC—are feeling the first tremors of a modest slowdown in the U.S. housing market, while BMO’s more diversified loan book cushions it.

The U.S. segment continues to be a swing factor. BMO’s post‑Bank‑of‑the‑West integration contributed C$0.45 billion of net income, a 28 percent uplift versus the prior quarter, and its U.S. loan portfolio grew 5 percent year‑over‑year (BMO earnings release, 2026‑06‑01). TD’s U.S. retail‑banking franchise, however, posted a 3 percent decline in loan growth, weighed down by higher provision levels in its Georgia and Florida branches (TD MD&A, 2026‑05‑28). The split in U.S. performance is mirrored in share price reactions: BMO shares rose 2.3 percent on the earnings day, while TD lagged the broader TSX by 0.6 percent (TSX composite, June 2).

Dividend policy has emerged as a leading indicator of banks’ confidence in earnings sustainability. Since the start of 2025, all six institutions have raised their quarterly payouts at least once, with aggregate dividend yields now averaging 4.2 percent, up from 3.7 percent a year earlier (S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2026‑06‑03). The higher yields are being financed largely by fee‑income growth rather than by leveraging balance‑sheet expansion, a point emphasized by RBC’s CFO in a recent earnings call (RBC conference call, June 12).

Looking ahead, the next wave of Big Six results will test whether the current earnings tailwinds can be sustained. Royal Bank of Canada is slated to report on June 26, with consensus EPS of C$9.45 and an expected dividend of C$1.07 per share (FactSet consensus, 2026‑06‑20). Toronto‑Dominion’s filing is due June 27, with analysts forecasting EPS of C$8.90 and a dividend of C$0.96 (FactSet, 2026‑06‑21). Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) follows on June 28, with consensus EPS of C$5.70 and a dividend of C$0.68 (FactSet, 2026‑06‑22). The key variables to watch will be: (i) whether NIM continues its modest rebound or reverts to compression as deposit‑cost pass‑through catches up; (ii) the trajectory of PCL ratios as the mortgage renewal wall peaks in Q3 2026; and (iii) the contribution of U.S. operations, especially for TD and CIBC, where loan‑growth deceleration could pressure earnings.

If the upcoming prints confirm the current pattern—stable NIM, modest PCL upticks, and fee‑income‑driven earnings growth—the Big Six could collectively lift the S&P/TSX Composite by an additional 0.8 percent over the next two weeks, as dividend‑seeking investors rotate into the sector (TSX sector index, June 14). Conversely, a surprise downgrade in NIM or a sharper rise in mortgage provisions would likely trigger a sell‑off, given the banks’ outsized weight (≈20 percent) in the index. The desk will therefore monitor the June 26‑28 earnings releases for any deviation from the 2.0‑percent NIM floor and the 0.35‑percent PCL ceiling that have defined the current quarter.

In sum, the Q2 earnings season has reinforced a structural shift toward fee‑based profitability and dividend resilience, while the mortgage‑renewal cycle remains the principal risk to credit quality. The next batch of reports will either cement this new equilibrium or expose the fragility of the banks’ reliance on non‑interest income as the macro backdrop evolves.