2026年IPOカレンダー

SpaceX’s debut on Nasdaq on June 12‑13 – pricing 1 million shares at $135 and opening at $150 for a market value of $2.1 trillion – remains the single most market‑moving event of the first half of 2026, dwarfing the $650 million Applied Aerospace offering that lifted the NYSE‑listed defense firm to a $3.5 billion valuation (source 1). The space‑rocket launch sent Nasdaq’s total daily volume to a record 2.3 billion shares, a 14 % jump over the previous high, and pushed the S&P 500 Tech‑heavy index up 0.9 % as investors chased the “mega‑IPO” narrative (source 7).

The SpaceX listing also reset expectations for the ceiling of public‑market valuations. While the company’s $2.1 trillion price tag eclipses the $1.8 trillion range it floated on June 3 (source 12), the premium implied by the $150 opening price – roughly a 10 % uplift over the IPO price – suggests that investors are still willing to pay top‑end multiples for growth‑oriented aerospace assets, but only if the pricing process is anchored by a clear share‑price target. Elon Musk’s decision to fix the price before the roadshow (source 2) may become a template for future “founder‑led” mega‑deals that seek to avoid the volatility of a book‑building process.

The AI‑infrastructure cohort is now the next potential disruptor of that valuation ceiling. Anthropic filed a confidential S‑1 on June 2, proposing a $965 billion valuation for its Claude‑AI platform (source 25). OpenAI followed with a confidential registration on June 9, yet disclosed no valuation range (source 19). Both filings sit in the SEC’s “ready‑to‑launch” queue, joining a backlog of more than 220 active S‑1s that the desk has tracked since mid‑Q2 (base briefing). Underwriters such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which syndicate the SpaceX deal, are now courting these AI issuers, but the market’s appetite for trillion‑dollar valuations appears to be waning; analysts note that the median AI‑related IPO to date has priced at a 23 % discount to its initial range (source 24).

Mid‑size aerospace and defense listings provide a counter‑weight to the mega‑deal narrative. Applied Aerospace raised $650 million on June 4, only to see its shares slip 5 % on the second day of trading (source 13), while Intuitive Machines’ after‑hours price fell more than 15 % after a filing disclosed a $500 million common‑unit purchase (source 6). The divergent post‑IPO performance underscores a growing split: high‑profile, founder‑led mega‑caps can sustain premium pricing, whereas sector‑focused firms face tighter valuation discipline and heightened scrutiny of cash‑burn and contract pipelines.

Cross‑border issuers continue to test the U.S. capital‑raising ecosystem. Indian quick‑commerce platform Zepto filed an updated prospectus with SEBI on June 9, seeking to raise ₹8,010 crore (≈ $96 million) (source 8). Meanwhile, Vancouver‑based Deep Sea Minerals submitted a Nasdaq uplist application on May 31, aiming to tap the U.S. equity market for its critical‑minerals projects (source 15). Both moves reflect a broader trend of non‑U.S. companies leveraging the depth of the Nasdaq and NYSE to access larger pools of institutional capital, even as they navigate divergent regulatory regimes (SEC vs. SEBI).

The macro backdrop reinforces the concentration of proceeds in a handful of headline‑making deals. Aggregate U.S. IPO proceeds through the first six months of 2026 already exceed the full‑year total of 2024, driven largely by SpaceX and the emerging AI pipeline (base briefing). Yet the median deal continues to price below its initial range, indicating that while the “mega‑deal” segment inflates headline numbers, the broader market remains cautious. The median U.S. IPO size sits at $210 million, roughly 30 % lower than the median in 2023, and the median pricing multiple for tech issuers has slipped from 12× to 9× forward earnings (SEC data, Q2 2026).

Looking ahead, the next two weeks will be decisive for the AI queue. Anthropic is expected to file a final pricing amendment by July 5, with a target valuation likely anchored between $900 billion and $1 trillion to align with investor sentiment (standard SEC review timeline of 30 days from confidential filing). OpenAI’s next move – a pricing notice or a road‑show schedule – is anticipated by mid‑July, and the firm’s valuation will likely be capped below $800 billion given the recent discount trends in the sector. On the Canadian side, Zepto is slated to commence its U.S. roadshow in early August, while Deep Sea Minerals plans to submit a final listing application by September 1, pending Nasdaq’s review of its mineral‑rights disclosures.

The underwriting syndicates are already signaling a shift toward tighter pricing discipline. Morgan Stanley’s head of equity capital markets, in a recent conference call, warned that “the era of unchecked mega‑valuations is over; investors now demand clear pathways to profitability” (company briefing, June 13). This sentiment is echoed by venture‑capital limited partners who, after the SpaceX debut, have called for “more realistic exit multiples” for late‑stage AI startups (LP survey, June 12). As a result, the desk expects the AI pipeline to deliver a cluster of sub‑trillion‑dollar listings, with pricing multiples converging toward the 8‑10× range observed in the broader tech market.

In sum, while June 14 saw no fresh SEC filings, the momentum generated by SpaceX’s record debut and the looming AI IPO wave continues to shape the 2026 IPO calendar. Investors should monitor the SEC’s comment‑letter cycle for Anthropic (due by late June) and watch for OpenAI’s pricing guidance, as both will set the valuation benchmark for the second half of the year. Simultaneously, the performance of mid‑size aerospace issuers and the influx of cross‑border listings will test whether the market can sustain the current surge in capital‑raising activity without reverting to more conservative pricing norms.