President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a new simulated presidential runoff poll [1].

These figures provide a critical glimpse into the polarized electoral landscape of Brazil as the country prepares for its upcoming presidential election. The results highlight the viability of both the incumbent and the Bolsonaro legacy, while suggesting that governors from other parties remain competitive.

Data from Real Time Big Data released on May 1, 2026, shows Lula with 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 40% in a second-round simulation [1]. However, other reports on the same polling data indicate a tighter race. Some sources report a tie between the two candidates at 45% each [2, 3], while another report indicates Flávio Bolsonaro leading slightly with 44% against Lula's 43% [4].

In first-round scenarios, the polling shows Lula maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro by six points [5]. This gap fluctuates across different reports, with some citing a five-point difference [1].

The simulation also included other potential contenders. President Lula is tied with Governors Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Romeu Zema (PSD) in second-round match-ups [2]. These results suggest a fragmented right-wing opposition that could split the vote among several high-profile governors and the Bolsonaro family.

The variation in reported percentages reflects the volatility of voter intentions as the election cycle progresses. The disparity between the 45% to 40% lead [1] and the 43% to 44% deficit [4] underscores the narrow margins separating the primary front-runners.

“Lula 45% vs Flávio 40% in second-round simulation”

The conflicting data points from the Real Time Big Data poll suggest a highly volatile electorate where small shifts in sentiment can flip the lead. While Lula maintains a consistent presence at the top, the ability of Flávio Bolsonaro and governors like Zema and Caiado to remain competitive indicates that the conservative bloc remains a formidable challenge, though potentially divided among multiple candidates.