Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to return to Southern Brazil by the end of this week [1], [2].
The return of intense precipitation poses a significant risk to regions already recovering from recent weather disruptions. The state of Rio Grande do Sul is particularly vulnerable to flooding and storm damage as a new weather system moves in.
Meteorologists said that a cold front is currently forming between Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil [1], [2]. This system is driving the expected precipitation, which is forecast to resume around Aug. 20 [2]. Intense rain is specifically expected on Monday, Aug. 20 [4].
In Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall accumulations may exceed 150 mm [1]. The forecast includes the possibility of hail and thunderstorms across the southern region [3]. These conditions follow a period of relative stability after a cyclone moved away from the continent on Saturday, Aug. 13 [2].
The region remains on edge following previous weather events. Reports said that 21 cities in Rio Grande do Sul suffered damage from recent storms [3]. The upcoming window of heavy rain, expected to last through Aug. 24 [2], could exacerbate existing infrastructure damage in those municipalities.
Local authorities are monitoring the movement of the cold front as it interacts with regional humidity [1]. While the cyclone has departed, the combination of the new front and atmospheric moisture creates the conditions for the projected heavy totals [1], [2].
“Rainfall accumulations may exceed 150 mm in Rio Grande do Sul”
The recurrence of heavy rainfall shortly after a cyclone event suggests a period of high atmospheric instability for Southern Brazil. For Rio Grande do Sul, the potential for 150 mm of rain in a short window increases the risk of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in the 21 cities already reporting storm damage.
