Tom Steyer is not closing the polling gap with Steve Hilton at the pace required to secure a top-two position in California’s gubernatorial primary.

This trend is critical because California utilizes a top-two jungle primary system. Under these rules, only the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki said that Steyer, a Democratic candidate, is falling behind Hilton, a Republican candidate. The analysis indicates that the gap between the two remains large and is not narrowing quickly enough for Steyer to overtake his opponents and secure a spot in the final runoff.

Election night returns for the primary were reported on June 3 [1]. The race has been described as a nail-biter as the state continues to count ballots [2]. The competition is particularly crowded, with 61 candidates appearing on the primary ballot [3].

Steyer faces an uphill climb to enter the top two. If the current pace of support does not accelerate, he risks being eliminated before the general election. The primary results will determine which two individuals, potentially from the same party or opposing parties, will compete for the governorship.

Officials continue to process votes across the state. The final tally will confirm whether Steyer can overcome the current deficit or if Hilton and other leading candidates will lock in the final two slots.

“Tom Steyer is not closing the polling gap with Steve Hilton at the pace required to secure a top-two position.”

The struggle for Tom Steyer highlights the volatility of California's nonpartisan primary system. Because the top two candidates advance regardless of party, a strong performance by a Republican like Steve Hilton can squeeze out Democratic challengers, potentially leading to a general election with multiple candidates from one party or a stark partisan divide.