Colombia faces a potential power outage as the El Niño phenomenon threatens to deplete hydroelectric reservoirs starting in mid-2026 [1, 2].
This situation is critical because Colombia relies heavily on hydroelectric power. A significant drop in water levels could destabilize the national grid, leading to energy rationing, and economic disruption across the country.
Climate variability consultant Christian Euscátegui said that the combination of water scarcity in reservoirs and an increase in energy demand creates a high risk of power failures [1]. The threat is expected to intensify during the second semester of 2026 [2, 3].
National reservoir levels are currently at approximately 60% of their capacity [4]. This decline limits the ability of plants to generate electricity, particularly in regions dependent on major hydroelectric sites such as Guatapé [4, 5].
Data indicates a high likelihood of the weather pattern's arrival. There is a more than 60% probability that El Niño will reach Colombia starting in the middle of the year [6]. Some reports suggest a 90% probability for its arrival in a specific month [7].
While some reports focus on the risk of energy rationing, others suggest a more severe outcome. Ariel César Echeverri Gómez said, "Tengo la sensación de que podríamos estar ad portas de otro apagón" [8].
These environmental pressures are expected to extend beyond the power grid. Reports indicate that a "super El Niño" could also impact food supplies, and drive up inflation [5].
“Colombia faces a potential power outage as the El Niño phenomenon threatens to deplete hydroelectric reservoirs”
The vulnerability of Colombia's energy grid to climate oscillations highlights a systemic reliance on hydroelectricity. If the projected 90% probability of El Niño manifests as a severe drought, the government may be forced to implement mandatory rationing to prevent a total grid collapse, potentially triggering a broader economic crisis through increased food prices and industrial slowdowns.
