Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and international agencies expect an El Niño event to develop this month, bringing hotter and drier weather to eastern Australia.
The shift in weather patterns poses significant risks to agriculture and water security in a region already grappling with the effects of a warming climate. Because El Niño amplifies heat and reduces rainfall, the event could exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a potentially strong El Niño arriving, and the agency said to prepare for hotter conditions from June to August [2]. This would mark the first El Niño since spring 2023 [1].
Data indicates an 80% chance of an El Niño event occurring between June and August [3]. Furthermore, there is a 90% chance that the event will continue until at least November [3]. While the transition is expected during the Australian winter, some forecasts suggest the event could peak during the New Zealand summer between December and February [4].
"The models are really aligning now," said Felicity Gamble, a senior Bureau of Meteorology scientist [1].
Warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are the primary driver of this phenomenon. The United Nations weather agency said that the event could be moderate or potentially strong, though some uncertainty remains regarding its total power [3].
A UN spokesperson said that El Niño will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world [5]. The combined effect of a natural climate cycle and long-term global warming is expected to intensify the heat risk across the Southern Hemisphere [3].
Regional authorities are urging preparedness as the Pacific temperatures shift. The WMO forecast team said the event is effectively on the doorstep [2].
“"The models are really aligning now."”
The convergence of a strong El Niño cycle with existing global warming trends creates a compounding effect. For eastern Australia and New Zealand, this means the traditional volatility of the El Niño cycle—characterized by drought and heat—may be more severe than historical averages, requiring more aggressive disaster mitigation and water management strategies.
