Only six Indian states currently maintain a total fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman [1].
This demographic shift indicates a widening regional imbalance that could influence future government policy and the contentious process of delimitation. As fertility rates drop across the majority of the country, the distribution of population growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in a few specific areas [1].
According to the 2025-26 Sample Registration System (SRS) bulletin, India's national total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 [1]. The replacement level is the threshold at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration [1].
"According to the Sample Registration System bulletin, only six states have a total fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.1," the bulletin said [1].
The data reveals that most of the country is now experiencing sub-replacement fertility. While the national average has dipped, the fact that six states remain above the 2.1 threshold suggests a persistent demographic divide between different regions of the country [1].
Reports from other outlets confirmed the trend, noting that only six states remain above the replacement threshold [2]. The decline in fertility rates is a critical metric for planners and policymakers who must account for an aging population in some regions, while managing rapid growth in others [3].
This trend is particularly relevant amid ongoing discussions regarding the redrawing of electoral constituencies to reflect current population distributions [1].
“India's national total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9”
The drop in India's total fertility rate to 1.9 signifies a transition toward a stabilizing or shrinking population in the long term. However, the regional disparity—where six states still exceed the replacement level—creates a demographic imbalance. This imbalance is likely to fuel political tension over delimitation, as states with slower population growth may lose proportional representation in government relative to those with higher fertility rates.
