India's 2026 southwest monsoon has begun with a weak start, leaving national rainfall levels 28% below normal [1, 2].
This shortfall threatens the country's agricultural productivity and water security, as the monsoon provides the primary source of water for crops and reservoirs across the region.
Data from the India Meteorological Department and other monitors indicate a severe deficit in the early stages of the season. Between June 4 and June 15, 2026, rainfall showed a 64% deficit, with only 19.2 mm received compared to the normal 53.7 mm [3, 4]. While eastern states have seen more precipitation, central regions, including Vidarbha, have experienced the most significant lack of rain [5, 6, 7].
Meteorologists attribute the disruption to unusual atmospheric conditions. The India Meteorological Department said developing El Niño conditions typically suppress rainfall across the Indian subcontinent [1, 8]. Additionally, a disruption of the westerly jet stream has contributed to the uneven and slow progress of the monsoon [3, 9].
Some reports indicated that key monsoon rains were expected to arrive a few days after the official start date [10]. However, the current trend suggests a struggle for the system to gain momentum. One forecast said the current cycle is potentially the weakest monsoon in 11 years [11].
Despite the slow start, some forecasts suggest that relief in the form of increased cloud cover and rain may arrive after June 20 [2]. The uneven distribution of rain continues to create a stark contrast between the soaked east and the baking heat of central India [5].
“National rainfall levels are 28% below normal.”
A weak monsoon onset combined with El Niño conditions often leads to reduced crop yields and increased food inflation in India. Because the agricultural sector remains heavily dependent on these seasonal rains, a prolonged deficit in central India could force the government to implement emergency irrigation measures or import additional staples to stabilize the domestic market.
