The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for June as the southwest monsoon slows across several regions [1], [2].
This slowdown threatens the monsoon core zone, where rain-fed agriculture depends on timely precipitation to sustain crop yields and water security.
Atmospheric conditions are currently blocking rain-bearing clouds. According to the IMD, strong dry westerly winds and jet-stream disruptions have created a temporary pause in the progression of the monsoon [1], [6]. These conditions have disproportionately affected Central India and the peninsular region, including Mumbai and parts of Andhra Pradesh [2], [4].
Recent data reveals a significant gap in expected precipitation. Between June 4 and 15, the region saw a 64% deficit, receiving only 19.2 mm of rain compared to the normal 53.7 mm [6]. Other reports indicate a nationwide deficit ranging from 38% [3] to 40% [1], while Central India specifically faced a 35% deficit [4].
The IMD has further downgraded its southwest monsoon outlook to 90% confidence [5]. This updated forecast predicts below-normal rainfall in three out of four regions [5]. Additional projections suggest a 60% chance of deficient rain and drought for the 2026 monsoon season [7].
The IMD said these patterns are the result of unusual upper-atmospheric conditions that hinder the movement of moisture-laden winds into the interior of the country [1], [6].
“The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for June as the southwest monsoon slows”
A prolonged rainfall deficit during the onset of the southwest monsoon can lead to severe agricultural stress and water scarcity. Because a large portion of India's farming is rain-fed, a 60% probability of a deficient season suggests a high risk of drought, which could impact food inflation and rural economic stability throughout the year.
