Russian citizens and elites are increasingly losing faith in President Vladimir Putin and his strategy for the ongoing war [1].
This erosion of support is significant because the Kremlin relies on a stable coalition of societal approval and elite loyalty to maintain domestic control. As war fatigue grows, the internal pressure could destabilize the Russian government's ability to sustain its military operations.
Reports indicate that the Russian society and elite circles are experiencing a decline in confidence due to growing internal pressure and the prolonged nature of the conflict [1]. The conflict has now entered its fifth year [1].
Former CIA director Bill Burns said these observations regarding the state of Russian confidence [2]. Burns previously visited Moscow in November 2021 [2] to engage with Russian officials prior to the escalation of the conflict.
Elite criticism of the Kremlin has become more pronounced as the economic and social costs of the war mount [1]. While the Russian state maintains a strong security apparatus, the underlying support from the ruling class is reportedly fraying, a shift that often precedes political volatility in authoritarian systems.
Confidence in Putin's leadership is specifically tied to the perceived success of his war strategy [1]. With the conflict extending into a fifth year [1], the gap between the Kremlin's promises of a swift victory and the reality of the battlefield has created a vacuum of trust among both the general population and the political elite [1].
“Russian citizens and elites are increasingly losing faith in President Vladimir Putin”
The shift in sentiment among Russian elites suggests a transition from passive acceptance to active skepticism. While this does not immediately signal a regime change, it indicates that the Kremlin's internal consensus is fracturing, potentially limiting Putin's flexibility in future negotiations or domestic policy shifts.
