A historically strong "super El Niño" is forecast to develop in the second half of 2024 [1], threatening major grain-producing regions across Asia.
This weather pattern poses a critical risk to global food supplies because it intensifies heat and dryness in areas responsible for a significant portion of the world's caloric intake. The resulting drought could lead to widespread crop failures and price volatility.
According to reporting from Reuters, dry weather is already hindering the sowing of crops across Asia [2]. The news agency said that concerns over food supplies are growing in the world's most populous region as these conditions persist [2]. Reuters said that a severe El Niño climate pattern could cause even greater damage [3].
The impact is expected to be felt most acutely in several key agricultural zones. In India, the north-western plains face significant risks, while Australia's eastern wheat belt may see diminished yields [4]. Thailand's rice-growing areas, and Indonesia's palm-oil farms are also identified as high-risk zones [4].
Chris Hyde, a meteorologist with SkyPie, said the effects of El Niño are particularly evident across Southeast Asia, India, and Australia [5]. Prolonged drought and below-average rainfall have already hampered both sowing and harvesting processes in these regions [6].
Agricultural experts said that the combination of existing dryness and the projected intensity of the super El Niño creates a compounding crisis. The intensification of heat and dryness is expected to worsen food-supply risks as the second half of 2024 progresses [6].
“A historically strong "super El Niño" is forecast to develop in the second half of 2024”
The emergence of a super El Niño during a period of existing agricultural stress suggests a high probability of regional food shortages. Because the affected areas include primary exporters of rice, wheat, and palm oil, the localized drought in Asia will likely trigger a ripple effect on global commodity prices and food security strategies.
