Climate scientists and forecasters said that a "super" El Niño is now the most likely scenario to develop by the end of this year [1], [2].
This shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures matters because such an event can trigger extreme global weather patterns, leading to severe humanitarian crises and economic instability.
Recent climate model guidance indicates unusually warm waters in the Pacific Ocean [5]. These conditions have raised the probability of a very strong event, which experts said is the most probable scenario for the period between October and February [3]. Some forecasts suggest this could be the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s [1].
The scale of the potential impact is significant. Some reports indicate this could become the most destructive extreme weather event in 155 years [2]. The phenomenon typically alters precipitation and temperature patterns across the globe, often leading to floods in some regions, and intense droughts in others.
Forecasters from AccuWeather and NOAA climate experts are monitoring the situation as the event forms [1], [2]. While some reports focus on the immediate end-of-year window, other guidance suggests a strong El Niño will form by the end of 2026 [4].
The humanitarian cost associated with such a massive climate shift could be huge [1], [3]. The warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean disrupts atmospheric circulation, which can devastate agriculture and water security in vulnerable regions.
“The biggest El Niño event since the 1870s”
A 'super' El Niño represents a severe disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system. Because these events correlate with extreme weather—such as torrential rains in South America and droughts in Southeast Asia—the potential for crop failure and infrastructure collapse increases. This forecast suggests a need for immediate international humanitarian preparation to mitigate the impact on food security and public health.
