The United Nations said that the El Niño phenomenon will increase the global risk of heat waves, droughts, and forest fires [1, 2].

This atmospheric shift threatens to destabilize agriculture and public safety, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, where extreme weather often leads to acute food insecurity [1, 3].

According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% probability [1] that El Niño will activate between June and August 2026. The organization said there is a more than 90% probability [1] that the phenomenon will persist until at least November 2026.

El Niño occurs when there is anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Pacific Ocean [1, 4]. This warming disrupts global weather patterns, triggering the extreme heat and dryness that fuel large-scale wildfires and prolonged droughts [1, 4].

Regional forecasts align with the international warnings. In Colombia, government officials said that the probability of the climate event consolidating is 82% [5].

These projections were announced in mid-May 2026 as part of a broader effort to prepare nations for the resulting environmental stress [1, 2]. The UN continues to monitor the Pacific surface temperatures to refine the timing of the onset [1].

“The United Nations said that the El Niño phenomenon will increase the global risk of heat waves, droughts, and forest fires.”

The high probability of a sustained El Niño event suggests a period of significant climatic volatility. For Latin America and the Caribbean, this typically translates to severe water shortages and crop failures, which may necessitate international humanitarian intervention to mitigate food insecurity. The overlap of these conditions with existing global temperature trends increases the likelihood of record-breaking heat waves.