The UN World Meteorological Organization and climate scientists warn that a moderate-to-strong El Niño is likely to develop this year.
This climate pattern is significant because it can amplify human-driven warming and increase the frequency of extreme weather events globally. By shifting warm water across the Pacific, El Niño alters atmospheric circulation and releases significant heat into the air.
During an El Niño event, weakened trade winds allow warm surface water to move eastward from Asia toward South America. This shift disrupts normal weather patterns, often leading to heavier rainfall in some regions and severe droughts in others. Scientists said that these natural fluctuations can turbocharge existing global warming trends.
Forecasters identify a high probability of the event occurring soon. There is an 80% chance [1] of an El Niño event between June and August, with a 90% chance [2] that the pattern will continue until at least November.
Looking further ahead, some reports indicate that El Niño will return at the end of 2026 [3]. This return could push 2027 toward a new all-time global heat record [3]. However, other experts suggest it is too early to definitively forecast a "super El Niño" for 2026, though concerns among the scientific community are rising [3].
ITV News Science Correspondent Martin Stew said the phenomenon acts as a natural driver of temperature spikes. When combined with the steady increase in greenhouse gases, the resulting heat can push global averages to dangerous levels.
“El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can raise global temperatures.”
The interaction between natural cycles like El Niño and anthropogenic climate change creates a compounding effect. While El Niño is a recurring natural event, its ability to spike global temperatures on top of a warming baseline increases the risk of crossing critical climate tipping points and straining global infrastructure designed for cooler norms.
