The United States and Iran signed a tentative agreement in mid-June 2026 to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz [1, 2].
The deal is critical because the narrow waterway between Oman and Iran serves as a primary artery for global energy markets. Restoring traffic is essential to halt hostilities and stabilize the flow of oil and shipping worldwide [1, 2].
Ships began trickling through the strait in mid-June 2026 following the agreement [3]. However, the return to normal operations will not be immediate. Experts said it could take weeks or months for oil to fully flow again [1, 4].
Logistics and energy analysts said the recovery process faces significant delays. Specifically, it will take more than two months for general traffic to return to pre-war levels [3].
The impact extends beyond energy shipments. Full recovery for container shipping could also take months [5]. This delay suggests that global supply chains may remain strained even as the diplomatic situation improves.
Government officials from both the U.S. and Iran said they sought to use the agreement to restore stability to the region [1, 2]. While the tentative peace deal provides a framework for reopening the waterway, the physical and operational backlog of shipping remains a hurdle.
“It will take more than two months for traffic to return to pre-war levels”
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marks a diplomatic breakthrough, but the economic recovery will lag behind the political agreement. Because oil and container traffic require complex scheduling and security assurances, the 'trickle' of ships indicates a cautious transition. Global markets should expect continued volatility in energy prices until traffic reaches pre-war levels, likely well into the third quarter of 2026.
