President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are in a technical tie for the 2026 presidency, a new poll shows.
The results highlight a deeply polarized electorate as the 2026 election cycle progresses, suggesting that neither the incumbent nor the Bolsonaro camp holds a definitive lead.
According to a poll commissioned by BTG Pactual and conducted by Nexus, Lula holds 47% [1] of voter intention in a simulated second-round runoff, while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 44% [1]. Because the poll carries a margin of error of ±2 percentage points [3], the gap between the two candidates is considered a technical tie.
The most recent fieldwork for the survey took place from July 10 to 12, 2026 [6], and involved 2,003 respondents [4]. The data was released on Monday, July 13 [8].
This survey follows a previous iteration conducted between June 26 and June 28, 2026 [7], which sampled 2,009 respondents [5]. The consistency in the narrow gap between the candidates indicates a persistent divide in voter preference between the Workers' Party and the Liberal Party.
While some reports suggested a later disclosure date of July 29 [9], the primary data was reported as available this week. The poll was designed to assess the competitiveness of a potential head-to-head matchup between the current president and the senator.
“Lula holds 47% of voter intention in a simulated second-round runoff, while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 44%.”
The technical tie suggests that Brazil's political landscape remains split along the same ideological lines as previous cycles. With the margin of error overlapping, the result indicates that a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided or that the current administration's approval is precisely balanced by the opposition's momentum, making the 2026 race highly volatile.
