President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a new Datafolha poll for a hypothetical second-round presidential vote.
The results highlight the ongoing polarization of the Brazilian electorate as the country prepares for upcoming presidential elections. The data suggests a tightening race between the incumbent and the Bolsonaro family legacy.
According to the poll released July 24, 2026, Lula maintains 48% [1] of voter support. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 43% [2] of the support in the same second-round scenario.
This latest data indicates a slight increase in the president's standing. In a previous Datafolha poll conducted June 20, Lula held 47% [3] of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro remained steady at 43% [4].
The poll was conducted nationwide to gauge how voters intend to cast their ballots. Analysts are monitoring the results to determine how recent political and economic events, including U.S. tariff announcements, are influencing public opinion in Brasília and beyond.
The current lead for the president represents a five percent margin over the senator. While the gap has widened slightly since June, the results reflect a deeply divided nation where a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, or firmly aligned with opposing ideological camps.
“Lula maintains 48% of voter support.”
The narrow margin between the two candidates suggests that the 2026 election will be decided by a small percentage of swing voters. The stability of Flávio Bolsonaro's support at 43% indicates a resilient base of conservative voters, while Lula's slight growth suggests his current administration's policies or the impact of external economic pressures may be consolidating support among the center-left.
