China will not rule out building fixed facilities on Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea [1].
This potential escalation marks a significant shift in the disputed reef's status. If Beijing proceeds with permanent construction, it would solidify its physical presence in a highly contested area, potentially altering the regional security balance and increasing the risk of direct confrontation with other claimants.
Wu Shicun, the founding president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies and chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, detailed the position in an interview [1]. He said Beijing will not rule out the possibility of building fixed facilities at Scarborough Shoal if external forces leave the country no choice [1].
Wu pointed to the actions of the Philippines as a primary driver for this consideration. He said Manila’s intensified “transparency” campaign is prompting China to consider stronger measures in the South China Sea [1]. This campaign involves the Philippines documenting and publicizing encounters between its vessels and Chinese ships to draw international attention to Beijing's activities.
Beyond the diplomatic friction with Manila, Wu suggested that China must be prepared to respond to broader regional challenges. He said China must show its swords when necessary and adjust its strategy to counter challenges from rival claimants [2].
Scarborough Shoal remains a flashpoint of tension. The reef is a disputed area where China and the Philippines have frequently clashed over fishing rights and maritime boundaries. The prospect of fixed facilities suggests a move toward permanent occupation, a strategy China has previously employed on other features in the South China Sea to establish military and administrative control.
“Beijing will not rule out the possibility of building fixed facilities at Scarborough Shoal if external forces leave us no choice.”
The signal from Wu Shicun suggests that China is viewing the Philippines' strategy of 'publicizing' maritime skirmishes as a provocation rather than a deterrent. By threatening the construction of fixed facilities, Beijing is leveraging the fear of 'fait accompli'—creating a permanent physical reality on the ground that would be nearly impossible to reverse through diplomacy or international law.
